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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Villarreal edge out Mallorca 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Villarreal beat Mallorca 2-1 at Estadio de la Ceramica, Regular Season - 13, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 2.33 xG and Mallorca 0.92 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.44 / defence 0.84 against Mallorca attack 0.98 / defence 1.15, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Villarreal 69% | Draw 18% | Mallorca 13%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 62%, Mallorca 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Villarreal's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Mallorca's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights