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Poisson model favours Villarreal (69%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Villarreal face Mallorca.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 13 as Villarreal welcome Mallorca to Estadio de la Ceramica. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 November 2025 at 20:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Villarreal — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Villarreal have posted 9W 1D 0L at Estadio de la Ceramica — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio de la Ceramica. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Villarreal are significantly better at Estadio de la Ceramica than their overall form suggests.

Across all La Liga games this season, Mallorca have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in La Liga this season, Mallorca have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On current form, Villarreal have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Villarreal have won 4, Mallorca 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2025, ended 4–0 with Villarreal winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Villarreal in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games).

Mallorca in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Villarreal 62% versus Mallorca 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Villarreal 62% | Mallorca 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 2.33 xG and Mallorca 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 1.444 / defence 0.840 | Mallorca attack 0.979 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.118. Villarreal carry an above-average attack strength of 1.444 — their λ of 2.33 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 50 Villarreal games / 50 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Villarreal 69% | Draw 18% | Mallorca 13%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 1.45 | Draw 5.56 | Mallorca 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Villarreal (69%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Villarreal at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Villarreal 40% | Mallorca 50%.

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