Villarreal 2-1 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Villarreal (69%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Villarreal face Mallorca.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 13 as Villarreal welcome Mallorca to Estadio de la Ceramica. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 November 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Villarreal — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Villarreal have posted 9W 1D 0L at Estadio de la Ceramica — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio de la Ceramica. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Villarreal are significantly better at Estadio de la Ceramica than their overall form suggests.
Across all La Liga games this season, Mallorca have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Mallorca have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Villarreal have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Villarreal have won 4, Mallorca 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2025, ended 4–0 with Villarreal winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Villarreal in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games).
Mallorca in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Villarreal 62% versus Mallorca 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Villarreal 62% | Mallorca 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 2.33 xG and Mallorca 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 1.444 / defence 0.840 | Mallorca attack 0.979 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.118. Villarreal carry an above-average attack strength of 1.444 — their λ of 2.33 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 50 Villarreal games / 50 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Villarreal 69% | Draw 18% | Mallorca 13%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 1.45 | Draw 5.56 | Mallorca 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Villarreal (69%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Villarreal at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Villarreal 40% | Mallorca 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villarreal vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estadio de la Ceramica • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villarreal 69% | Draw 18% | Mallorca 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 54% | xG Villarreal 2.33 / Mallorca 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Villarreal attack 1.444 / def 0.840 | Mallorca attack 0.979 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Villarreal xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Mallorca xG
54%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Villarreal vs Mallorca kick off?
Villarreal vs Mallorca kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Estadio de la Ceramica.
What was the final score in Villarreal vs Mallorca?
Villarreal 2 - 1 Mallorca.
Where is Villarreal vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de la Ceramica.
What competition is Villarreal vs Mallorca part of?
Villarreal vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Villarreal a 69% chance of winning, Mallorca a 13% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Villarreal and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Villarreal vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Mallorca?
Record (8 meetings): Villarreal 4W | Draws 2 | Mallorca 2W.
What form are Villarreal and Mallorca in?
Villarreal (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Mallorca (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Villarreal's attacking strength (1.44x league average) is weighed against Mallorca's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.33. The same calculation in reverse, Mallorca's attack versus Villarreal's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
69%
1.45
18%
5.60
13%
7.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Villarreal xG
Total xG
3.25
0.92
Mallorca xG
1.45
69%
Home win
5.60
18%
Draw
7.55
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
10%
10.29
Win to Nil
27%
3.64
1%
77.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Villarreal and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Villarreal and 0.92 for Mallorca, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Villarreal vs Mallorca?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Villarreal's recent record stands at 28W 12D 10L from 50 games, a 1.92 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Villarreal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mallorca, meanwhile, have gone 16W 12D 22L across 50 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Villarreal by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mallorca heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Villarreal have managed 14W 8D 3L from 25 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mallorca's away record stands at 7W 3D 15L across 25 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Villarreal are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.94 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villarreal
Blended
Mallorca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Villarreal and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Villarreal have gone 28W 12D 10L in their last 50 games (1.92 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 16W 12D 22L in their last 50 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Villarreal at home or Mallorca away?
Villarreal's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Villarreal at home: 2.00 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Villarreal and Mallorca runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jan 2025, when Villarreal won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Villarreal's record when hosting Mallorca specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Villarreal
3
Draws
2
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Mallorca?
From 10 meetings on record, Villarreal have won 5, Mallorca have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Villarreal and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Mallorca 1-1 Villarreal.
Who has won more matches between Villarreal and Mallorca?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Villarreal 64%, Mallorca 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 72% (Villarreal) and 44% (Mallorca). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Villarreal keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Mallorca in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villarreal home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Villarreal play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Villarreal's recent matches and 44% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Villarreal vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Villarreal's matches and 44% of Mallorca's.
Do Villarreal and Mallorca tend to score early?
Villarreal have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Villarreal edge out Mallorca 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Mallorca 2-1 at Estadio de la Ceramica, Regular Season - 13, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 2.33 xG and Mallorca 0.92 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.44 / defence 0.84 against Mallorca attack 0.98 / defence 1.15, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Villarreal 69% | Draw 18% | Mallorca 13%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 62%, Mallorca 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Villarreal's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Mallorca's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.