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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Osasuna edge out Valladolid 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Osasuna beat Valladolid 2-3 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Regular Season - 32, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valladolid 0.65 xG and Osasuna 1.16 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Valladolid beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Osasuna outscored their 1.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valladolid attack 0.54 / defence 1.44 against Osasuna attack 0.65 / defence 0.91, drawn from 31/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valladolid 21% | Draw 31% | Osasuna 48%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valladolid 64%, Osasuna 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valladolid's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Osasuna's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Osasuna arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.52. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Valladolid (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.53 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.53 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights