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Poisson model favours Osasuna (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Valladolid face Osasuna.

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Match Analysis

Valladolid host Osasuna at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 April 2025 at 13:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Valladolid — All Games: 0W 1D 9L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 3.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Valladolid have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Valladolid are significantly better at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Osasuna away from home this season: 0W 6D 4L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Osasuna — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Valladolid have won 0, Osasuna 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Osasuna winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Valladolid in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

Osasuna in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valladolid 48% versus Osasuna 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valladolid 64% | Osasuna 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Valladolid 0.65 xG and Osasuna 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valladolid attack 0.543 / defence 1.440 | Osasuna attack 0.649 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.239. Valladolid's attack strength of 0.543 is below the league average — the 0.65 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 Valladolid games / 69 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Valladolid 21% | Draw 31% | Osasuna 48%. Fair-value odds: Valladolid 4.76 | Draw 3.23 | Osasuna 2.08. Osasuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Valladolid's lower xG of 0.65 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Osasuna are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 1.81 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Valladolid 30% | Osasuna 40% BTTS from recent games.

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