Valladolid 2-3 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Osasuna (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Valladolid face Osasuna.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Valladolid host Osasuna at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 April 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Valladolid — All Games: 0W 1D 9L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 3.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Valladolid have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Valladolid are significantly better at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Osasuna away from home this season: 0W 6D 4L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Osasuna — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Valladolid have won 0, Osasuna 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Osasuna winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Valladolid in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Osasuna in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valladolid 48% versus Osasuna 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valladolid 64% | Osasuna 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valladolid 0.65 xG and Osasuna 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valladolid attack 0.543 / defence 1.440 | Osasuna attack 0.649 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.239. Valladolid's attack strength of 0.543 is below the league average — the 0.65 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 Valladolid games / 69 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valladolid 21% | Draw 31% | Osasuna 48%. Fair-value odds: Valladolid 4.76 | Draw 3.23 | Osasuna 2.08. Osasuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Valladolid's lower xG of 0.65 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osasuna are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.81 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Valladolid 30% | Osasuna 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valladolid vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Apr 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valladolid 21% | Draw 31% | Osasuna 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 33% | xG Valladolid 0.65 / Osasuna 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Valladolid attack 0.543 / def 1.440 | Osasuna attack 0.649 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.65
Valladolid xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Osasuna xG
33%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valladolid vs Osasuna kick off?
Valladolid vs Osasuna kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 20 April 2025 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What was the final score in Valladolid vs Osasuna?
Valladolid 2 - 3 Osasuna.
Where is Valladolid vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What competition is Valladolid vs Osasuna part of?
Valladolid vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valladolid vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Valladolid a 21% chance of winning, Osasuna a 48% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valladolid vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Valladolid and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Valladolid vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Osasuna?
Record (3 meetings): Valladolid 0W | Draws 1 | Osasuna 2W.
What form are Valladolid and Osasuna in?
Valladolid (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 3.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Osasuna (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Valladolid's attack at 0.54x the league average against Osasuna's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 0.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Valladolid's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (17.3%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
21%
4.81
31%
3.20
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.65
Valladolid xG
Total xG
1.81
1.16
Osasuna xG
4.81
21%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.04
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
52%
1.92
Win to Nil
7%
15.31
25%
4.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.3 | 18.9 | 11.0 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.4 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valladolid vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are Valladolid and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 0.65 expected goals for Valladolid and 1.16 for Osasuna, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Valladolid vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Valladolid's recent record stands at 4W 4D 23L from 31 games, a 0.52 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Osasuna, meanwhile, have gone 8W 14D 9L across 31 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-L-D-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Osasuna by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Valladolid heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Valladolid have managed 3W 4D 8L from 15 games — 0.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Osasuna's away record stands at 1W 8D 6L across 15 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Osasuna's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Valladolid are averaging 0.68 goals scored and 2.35 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.16 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Osasuna in 65%.
Last 31 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valladolid
Current Season
Osasuna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valladolid and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Valladolid have gone 4W 4D 23L in their last 31 games (0.52 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 8W 14D 9L in their last 31 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valladolid at home or Osasuna away?
Valladolid's home record (0.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valladolid at home: 0.87 PPG; Osasuna away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Osasuna go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Valladolid's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Valladolid
1
Draws
3
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Osasuna?
From 4 meetings on record, Valladolid have won 0, Osasuna have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Valladolid and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2025, when Valladolid 2-3 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Valladolid and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valladolid see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valladolid 33%, Osasuna 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Valladolid) and 27% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Valladolid keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Valladolid have failed to score in 47% of games; Osasuna in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valladolid home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valladolid play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Valladolid's recent matches and 40% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valladolid vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Valladolid's recent games and 27% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Osasuna edge out Valladolid 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Valladolid 2-3 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Regular Season - 32, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valladolid 0.65 xG and Osasuna 1.16 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Valladolid beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Osasuna outscored their 1.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valladolid attack 0.54 / defence 1.44 against Osasuna attack 0.65 / defence 0.91, drawn from 31/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valladolid 21% | Draw 31% | Osasuna 48%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valladolid 64%, Osasuna 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valladolid's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Osasuna's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Osasuna arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.52. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Valladolid (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.53 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.53 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.