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Prediction vindicated as Alaves edge out Valladolid 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alaves beat Valladolid 0-1 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Regular Season - 37, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valladolid 0.81 xG and Alaves 1.72 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Valladolid fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valladolid attack 0.59 / defence 1.48 against Alaves attack 1.00 / defence 0.98, drawn from 36/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valladolid 17% | Draw 24% | Alaves 59%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valladolid 67%, Alaves 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valladolid's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Alaves's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Alaves arrived the stronger side — 1.06 PPG against 0.44. Form held, and they took the win. Alaves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights