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Poisson rates Alaves at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valladolid vs Alaves encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Valladolid and Alaves meet at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.

Current Form

Valladolid's overall La Liga record this term: 0W 0D 10L from 10 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Valladolid have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 0.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.00 — Valladolid are significantly better at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla than their overall form suggests.

Alaves (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

Alaves's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On a straight form reading, Alaves are the stronger side — 1.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Valladolid 1W, Alaves 0W, 0D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2024, ended 3–2 with Valladolid winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Valladolid half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Alaves half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valladolid 53% versus Alaves 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valladolid 67% | Alaves 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Valladolid 0.81 xG and Alaves 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valladolid attack 0.595 / defence 1.483 | Alaves attack 0.998 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.164. Valladolid's attack strength of 0.595 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 36 Valladolid games / 74 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Valladolid 17% | Draw 24% | Alaves 59%. Fair-value odds: Valladolid 5.88 | Draw 4.17 | Alaves 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Alaves (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Alaves at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Valladolid 30% | Alaves 70%.

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