Valencia 2-0 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valencia at 37%, yet in-form Girona provide a compelling counter-argument — this Valencia vs Girona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Valencia host Girona at Estadio de Mestalla in La Liga (matchday 6). Kick-off is Saturday 21 September 2024 at 18:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Valencia — last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Valencia at home: 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Valencia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Girona stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Girona have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Girona's 1.70 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Valencia's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Valencia have won 1, Girona 3, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 May 2024, ended Valencia 1–3 Girona — a Girona win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Valencia trading profile (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Girona trading profile (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 44% versus Girona 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 44% | Girona 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.22 xG and Girona 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 0.868 / defence 0.991 | Girona attack 1.094 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.038. Data: built from Valencia's last 43 games and Girona's last 43.
Result probabilities: Valencia 37% | Draw 30% | Girona 32%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 2.70 | Draw 3.28 | Girona 3.08. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valencia are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Girona (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valencia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Valencia 50% (last 10 home games) | Girona 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, matchday 6 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Saturday 21 September 2024 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 37% | Draw 30% | Girona 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Valencia 1.22 / Girona 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 0.868 / def 0.991 | Girona attack 1.094 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Valencia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Girona xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Valencia vs Girona FAQs
What time does Valencia vs Girona kick off?
Valencia vs Girona kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Girona?
Valencia 2 - 0 Girona.
Where is Valencia vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Girona part of?
Valencia vs Girona is a La Liga fixture (matchday 6) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 37% chance of winning, Girona a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Valencia and Girona will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Valencia vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Valencia's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Girona's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Girona's attack versus Valencia's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Valencia's last 43 games and Girona's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
37%
2.70
30%
3.28
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.35
1.13
Girona xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
12%
8.32
10%
10.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.8 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.2 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Valencia vs Girona Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Valencia and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Valencia and 1.13 for Girona, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Valencia come into this having played 43 games, going 13W 11D 19L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Girona sit at 2.05 PPG from 43 outings (27W 7D 9L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-L across their last five.
Girona carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.89 PPG clear of Valencia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Valencia's home form reads 8W 7D 6L across their last 21 home games, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Girona have taken 1.76 points per game from their last 21 away games (11W 4D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Valencia are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 2.16 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Early Season
Girona
Early Season
Valencia (Home) vs Girona (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Valencia
Early Season
Girona
Early Season
❓ Valencia vs Girona Form FAQs
What form are Valencia and Girona in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 13W 11D 19L in their last 43 games (1.16 PPG), while Girona have gone 27W 7D 9L in their last 43 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Girona away?
Girona's away record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.48 PPG; Girona away: 1.76 PPG.
Have Valencia or Girona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valencia have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Girona in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 25 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Valencia's record when hosting Girona specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Valencia
1
Draws
4
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Valencia vs Girona H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Girona?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Valencia have won 3, Girona have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Valencia and Girona last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2026: Valencia 2-1 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Valencia and Girona?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 43%, Girona 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Valencia) and 57% (Girona).
On the defensive side: Valencia keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Valencia have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Valencia vs Girona Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Valencia and Girona matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Valencia's recent matches and 57% of Girona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Valencia and Girona matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Valencia's recent games and 57% of Girona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valencia and Girona matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Valencia's recent matches and 86% of Girona's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valencia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Girona.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia beat Girona 2-0 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 6, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.22 xG and Girona 1.13 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Girona landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.87 / defence 0.99 against Girona attack 1.09 / defence 0.96, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 37% | Draw 30% | Girona 32%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 44%, Girona 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Girona's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Valencia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Valencia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Girona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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