Valencia 0-0 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Valencia at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valencia vs Osasuna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Valencia host Osasuna at Estadio de Mestalla in La Liga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 24 September 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Valencia — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Valencia have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Valencia's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Estadio de Mestalla this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Osasuna have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Osasuna's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Osasuna — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Valencia, 2 for Osasuna and 0 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Valencia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Valencia trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Osasuna trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 43% versus Osasuna 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 43% | Osasuna 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.83 xG and Osasuna 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 0.935 / defence 0.860 | Osasuna attack 0.946 / defence 1.297. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.078. Osasuna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.297 — this is suppressing Valencia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Valencia games / 44 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valencia 58% | Draw 26% | Osasuna 16%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 1.72 | Draw 3.85 | Osasuna 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Valencia (58%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Valencia dominate the H2H record, yet Osasuna are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Valencia as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Osasuna (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Valencia 50% | Osasuna 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 58% | Draw 26% | Osasuna 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG Valencia 1.83 / Osasuna 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 0.935 / def 0.860 | Osasuna attack 0.946 / def 1.297 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: Valencia (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Osasuna xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valencia vs Osasuna kick off?
Valencia vs Osasuna kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 24 September 2024 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Osasuna?
Valencia 0 - 0 Osasuna.
Where is Valencia vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Osasuna part of?
Valencia vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 58% chance of winning, Osasuna a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Valencia and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Valencia vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Osasuna?
Record (6 meetings): Valencia 4W | Draws 0 | Osasuna 2W.
What form are Valencia and Osasuna in?
Valencia (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Osasuna (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Valencia's attack rating (0.94) and Osasuna's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Valencia's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
58%
1.72
26%
3.85
16%
6.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.70
0.88
Osasuna xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
6.28
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
16%
6.22
Win to Nil
24%
4.14
3%
39.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 10.7 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Valencia and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Valencia and 0.88 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Osasuna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Valencia come into this having played 44 games, going 14W 11D 19L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Valencia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 1.25 PPG from 44 outings (15W 10D 19L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Osasuna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valencia on 1.20 PPG, Osasuna on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Valencia's home form reads 8W 7D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Osasuna have taken 1.05 points per game from 21 outings (6W 4D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valencia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Valencia are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.20 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 44 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Early Season
Osasuna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valencia and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 14W 11D 19L in their last 44 games (1.20 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 15W 10D 19L in their last 44 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Osasuna away?
Valencia's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.48 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Valencia or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valencia have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Osasuna in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2021, when Valencia won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valencia's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Valencia
2
Draws
3
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Valencia have won 5, Osasuna have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Valencia 1-0 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Valencia and Osasuna?
Valencia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 43%, Osasuna 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Valencia) and 62% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Valencia keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Valencia have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valencia play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Valencia's recent matches and 57% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valencia vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Valencia's recent games and 62% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valencia and Osasuna tend to score early?
Valencia have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Valencia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 7, as Valencia and Osasuna drew 0-0 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.83 xG and Osasuna 0.88 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Valencia fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Osasuna landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.94 / defence 0.86 against Osasuna attack 0.95 / defence 1.30, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 58% | Draw 26% | Osasuna 16%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 58%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 43%, Osasuna 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Osasuna's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valencia 1.20 PPG, Osasuna 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Valencia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Osasuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.