Real Betis 1-2 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Real Betis at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Real Betis vs Mallorca encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Real Betis host Mallorca at Estadio Benito Villamarín in La Liga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 23 September 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Real Betis stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Real Betis have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Real Betis's home record at Estadio Benito Villamarín: 5W 3D 2L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all La Liga games this season, Mallorca have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Mallorca have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mallorca away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Real Betis at 1.60 PPG versus Mallorca's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Real Betis: 5 wins from 6 previous clashes against 0 for Mallorca, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2024, ended 1–0 with Real Betis winning.
The historical record gives Real Betis a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Real Betis trading profile (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Mallorca trading profile (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 45% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Betis 56% versus Mallorca 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Real Betis 37% | Mallorca 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Betis 1.33 xG and Mallorca 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Betis attack 1.060 / defence 0.959 | Mallorca attack 0.843 / defence 0.831. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.064. Data: 43 Real Betis games / 44 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Real Betis 46% | Draw 32% | Mallorca 22%. Fair-value odds: Real Betis 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Mallorca 4.55. Real Betis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Real Betis are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Betis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Real Betis 70% | Mallorca 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Betis vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estadio Benito Villamarín • Kick-off: Monday 23 Sep 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Betis 46% | Draw 32% | Mallorca 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Real Betis 1.33 / Mallorca 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Real Betis attack 1.060 / def 0.959 | Mallorca attack 0.843 / def 0.831 | league avg home 1.510 / away 1.064 • Poisson stance: Real Betis (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Real Betis xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Mallorca xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Betis vs Mallorca kick off?
Real Betis vs Mallorca kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 23 September 2024 at Estadio Benito Villamarín.
What was the final score in Real Betis vs Mallorca?
Real Betis 1 - 2 Mallorca.
Where is Real Betis vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Benito Villamarín.
What competition is Real Betis vs Mallorca part of?
Real Betis vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Betis vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Real Betis a 46% chance of winning, Mallorca a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Real Betis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Betis vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Real Betis and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Real Betis vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Betis and Mallorca?
Record (6 meetings): Real Betis 5W | Draws 1 | Mallorca 0W.
What form are Real Betis and Mallorca in?
Real Betis (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Mallorca (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Real Betis's attack rating (1.06) and Mallorca's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mallorca's attack versus Real Betis's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Betis Win
46%
2.20
32%
3.09
22%
4.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Real Betis xG
Total xG
2.19
0.86
Mallorca xG
2.20
46%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
4.53
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
6%
17.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.8 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Betis vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Real Betis and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Real Betis and 0.86 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Betis vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Real Betis have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 16W 17D 10L record — D-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Real Betis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Mallorca's form line: 10W 17D 16L from 43 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Mallorca, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Real Betis are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mallorca.
Venue Form
On home soil, Real Betis have posted 1.85 PPG from 20 outings (10W 7D 3L).
On the road, Mallorca have gone 3W 7D 10L from 20 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Betis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Real Betis are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.84 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 43 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Betis
Early Season
Mallorca
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Betis and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Real Betis have gone 16W 17D 10L in their last 43 games (1.51 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 10W 17D 16L in their last 43 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Betis at home or Mallorca away?
Real Betis's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Betis at home: 1.85 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Real Betis or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Betis have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Mallorca in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Real Betis go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Nov 2025, when Real Betis won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Real Betis's record when hosting Mallorca specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Real Betis
1
Draws
1
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Betis and Mallorca?
From 10 meetings on record, Real Betis have won 8, Mallorca have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Real Betis and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Mallorca 1-2 Real Betis.
Who has won more matches between Real Betis and Mallorca?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Real Betis 65%, Mallorca 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Real Betis and 30% for Mallorca.
On the defensive side: Mallorca in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Betis home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Betis play Mallorca?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Real Betis's games and 45% of Mallorca's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Real Betis vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Real Betis's recent games and 30% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Real Betis and Mallorca tend to score early?
Real Betis have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 45% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mallorca defy the odds to beat Real Betis 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Real Betis 1-2 at Estadio Benito Villamarín, Regular Season - 6, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Betis 1.33 xG and Mallorca 0.86 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Mallorca outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Betis attack 1.06 / defence 0.96 against Mallorca attack 0.84 / defence 0.83, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Betis 46% | Draw 32% | Mallorca 22%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Mallorca win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Betis 37%, Mallorca 28%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Betis's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Mallorca's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Mallorca winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Real Betis (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.