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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Valencia and Alaves share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Valencia and Alaves finished level at 2-2 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 18, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.80 xG and Alaves 1.16 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Alaves outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 1.04 / defence 1.08 against Alaves attack 0.93 / defence 1.22, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Valencia 52% | Draw 23% | Alaves 24%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 43%, Alaves 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Valencia's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Alaves's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Valencia 1.11 PPG, Alaves 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Valencia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights