🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Sevilla and Alaves share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 24, as Sevilla and Alaves drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.34 xG and Alaves 1.03 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 0.89 / defence 1.15 against Alaves attack 0.80 / defence 1.02, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sevilla 43% | Draw 30% | Alaves 27%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 49%, Alaves 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sevilla's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Alaves's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sevilla 1.08 PPG, Alaves 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights