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Real Sociedad cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Osasuna.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Sociedad beat Osasuna 3-1 at Reale Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 1.41 xG and Osasuna 1.10 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Real Sociedad beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 1.18 / defence 1.22 against Osasuna attack 0.80 / defence 0.78, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 44% | Draw 27% | Osasuna 29%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 49%, Osasuna 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Sociedad's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Osasuna's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Real Sociedad 1.25 PPG, Osasuna 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Real Sociedad win broke the near-deadlock. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Osasuna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights