Mallorca 3-0 Rayo Vallecano – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mallorca at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadi Mallorca Son Moix plays host to Mallorca versus Rayo Vallecano in La Liga, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Sunday 12 April 2026 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mallorca have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Mallorca have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Mallorca are significantly better at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix than their overall form suggests.
Rayo Vallecano's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Rayo Vallecano have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Mallorca, 1.30 for Rayo Vallecano — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Mallorca, who have won 5 of the last 9 meetings against Rayo Vallecano — a 2D 2W return for the visitors.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Jan 2026, ended 1–2 with Rayo Vallecano winning.
The historical record gives Mallorca a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Rayo Vallecano goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 57% versus Rayo Vallecano 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 52% | Rayo Vallecano 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.55 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 1.054 / defence 1.059 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.763 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.121. Data: 68 Mallorca games / 68 Rayo Vallecano games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 52% | Draw 26% | Rayo Vallecano 22%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Rayo Vallecano 4.55. Mallorca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mallorca as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mallorca if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Mallorca 80% | Rayo Vallecano 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Apr 2026, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 52% | Draw 26% | Rayo Vallecano 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG Mallorca 1.55 / Rayo Vallecano 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 1.054 / def 1.059 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.763 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.564 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Rayo Vallecano xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano kick off?
Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano?
Mallorca 3 - 0 Rayo Vallecano.
Where is Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano part of?
Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 52% chance of winning, Rayo Vallecano a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano?
Record (9 meetings): Mallorca 5W | Draws 2 | Rayo Vallecano 2W.
What form are Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano in?
Mallorca (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mallorca's attack at 1.05x the league average against Rayo Vallecano's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rayo Vallecano's attack (0.76x) against Mallorca's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
52%
1.91
26%
3.90
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.46
0.91
Rayo Vallecano xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
5%
21.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.0 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.91 for Rayo Vallecano, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mallorca's recent record stands at 21W 16D 31L from 68 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five.
Rayo Vallecano, meanwhile, have gone 21W 24D 23L across 68 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-D-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Mallorca against 1.28 for Rayo Vallecano. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mallorca have managed 14W 10D 10L from 34 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rayo Vallecano's away record stands at 10W 8D 16L across 34 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mallorca are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Rayo Vallecano are on 1.03 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 68 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Current Season
Rayo Vallecano
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 21W 16D 31L in their last 68 games (1.16 PPG), while Rayo Vallecano have gone 21W 24D 23L in their last 68 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Rayo Vallecano away?
Mallorca's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.53 PPG; Rayo Vallecano away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mallorca won 3-0 on 4 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mallorca have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rayo Vallecano — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Mallorca
2
Draws
2
Rayo Vallecano
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano?
From 10 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 6, Rayo Vallecano have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Mallorca 3-0 Rayo Vallecano.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano?
Mallorca have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Rayo Vallecano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 68%, Rayo Vallecano 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Mallorca) and 41% (Rayo Vallecano).
On the defensive side: Rayo Vallecano in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Rayo Vallecano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Rayo Vallecano?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Mallorca's recent matches and 41% of Rayo Vallecano's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Mallorca's recent games and 41% of Rayo Vallecano's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Rayo Vallecano in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mallorca run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Rayo Vallecano.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Rayo Vallecano 3-0 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 31, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.55 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.91 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Mallorca beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rayo Vallecano landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 1.05 / defence 1.06 against Rayo Vallecano attack 0.76 / defence 0.94, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 52% | Draw 26% | Rayo Vallecano 22%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 52%, Rayo Vallecano 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.16 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.