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Poisson rates Mallorca at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano encounter.

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Full Analysis

Estadi Mallorca Son Moix plays host to Mallorca versus Rayo Vallecano in La Liga, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Sunday 12 April 2026 at 15:15 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Mallorca have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Mallorca have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Mallorca are significantly better at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix than their overall form suggests.

Rayo Vallecano's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Rayo Vallecano have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Mallorca, 1.30 for Rayo Vallecano — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record favours Mallorca, who have won 5 of the last 9 meetings against Rayo Vallecano — a 2D 2W return for the visitors.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Jan 2026, ended 1–2 with Rayo Vallecano winning.

The historical record gives Mallorca a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Data

Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Rayo Vallecano goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 57% versus Rayo Vallecano 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 52% | Rayo Vallecano 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.55 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 1.054 / defence 1.059 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.763 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.121. Data: 68 Mallorca games / 68 Rayo Vallecano games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Mallorca 52% | Draw 26% | Rayo Vallecano 22%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Rayo Vallecano 4.55. Mallorca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Mallorca as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mallorca if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Mallorca 80% | Rayo Vallecano 30%.

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