🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Real Madrid run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Real Sociedad.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Madrid beat Real Sociedad 4-1 at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Regular Season - 24, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Madrid 1.76 xG and Real Sociedad 0.90 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Real Madrid beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Madrid attack 1.29 / defence 0.80 against Real Sociedad attack 1.00 / defence 0.92, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Madrid 56% | Draw 26% | Real Sociedad 18%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Madrid 57%, Real Sociedad 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Madrid's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Real Sociedad's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.26. Form held, and they took the win. Real Madrid (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.33 average — above their attacking norm. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights