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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Real Madrid edge out Alaves 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Madrid beat Alaves 2-1 at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Regular Season - 33, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Madrid 2.51 xG and Alaves 1.25 xG, a combined 3.76. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Madrid attack 1.33 / defence 0.97 against Alaves attack 1.15 / defence 1.22, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Real Madrid 65% | Draw 18% | Alaves 17%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Madrid 59%, Alaves 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Real Madrid's trading profile (69 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Alaves's trading profile (69 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights