Real Betis 1-0 Granada CF – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Real Betis at 67% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Real Betis vs Granada CF encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Real Betis and Granada CF meet at Estadio Benito Villamarín in La Liga (matchday 20). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 January 2024 at 20:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Real Betis have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Real Betis at home: 5W 5D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Real Betis are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Granada CF's record over their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Granada CF away from home: 0W 1D 8L from their last 9 away games — 0.11 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Real Betis's favour (1.50 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Real Betis edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2023, ended Real Betis 1–1 Granada CF — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Real Betis half-time and goal-timing data (last 19 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games).

Granada CF half-time and goal-timing data (last 19 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Betis 58% versus Granada CF 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Real Betis 32% | Granada CF 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Real Betis 1.90 xG and Granada CF 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Betis attack 0.990 / defence 0.733 | Granada CF attack 0.735 / defence 1.361. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.131. Granada CF's defence rating of 1.361 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Real Betis's projected output up. Granada CF's attack rating of 0.735 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.61. Real Betis have a tight defence (rating 0.733), which is pulling Granada CF's projected output down. Data: built from Real Betis's last 57 games and Granada CF's last 19.

Result probabilities: Real Betis 67% | Draw 24% | Granada CF 10%. Fair-value odds: Real Betis 1.50 | Draw 4.22 | Granada CF 10.52. The model has a clear lean to Real Betis (67%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Real Betis as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Real Betis 50% (last 10 home games) | Granada CF 44% (last 9 away games).

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