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Rayo Vallecano cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Villarreal.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rayo Vallecano beat Villarreal 2-0 at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Regular Season - 37, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 1.32 xG and Villarreal 1.07 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Villarreal landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 0.92 / defence 0.91 against Villarreal attack 1.03 / defence 0.95, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 42% | Draw 27% | Villarreal 30%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 40%, Villarreal 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Villarreal's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.30. Form was overturned, with Rayo Vallecano winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Villarreal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights