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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Osasuna cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Rayo Vallecano.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Osasuna beat Rayo Vallecano 1-3 at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Regular Season - 21, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 1.00 xG and Osasuna 0.59 xG, a combined 1.58. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Osasuna outscored their 0.59 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 0.75 / defence 0.82 against Osasuna attack 0.65 / defence 0.92, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 43% | Draw 37% | Osasuna 20%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Osasuna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 48% and landed. Over 3.5 was 8% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 41%, Osasuna 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Osasuna's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rayo Vallecano 1.28 PPG, Osasuna 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights