🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Rayo Vallecano at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rayo Vallecano vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 21 as Rayo Vallecano welcome Osasuna to Campo de Futbol de Vallecas. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 January 2026 at 13:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Rayo Vallecano — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Rayo Vallecano, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Rayo Vallecano have posted 2W 7D 1L at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Rayo Vallecano are significantly better at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Osasuna have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Rayo Vallecano) versus 1.20 (Osasuna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Rayo Vallecano, 5 for Osasuna and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 0–2 with Osasuna winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Rayo Vallecano in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Osasuna in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rayo Vallecano 50% versus Osasuna 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayo Vallecano 41% | Osasuna 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rayo Vallecano 1.00 xG and Osasuna 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.751 / defence 0.817 | Osasuna attack 0.650 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.106. Rayo Vallecano's attack strength of 0.751 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 58 Rayo Vallecano games / 58 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 43% | Draw 37% | Osasuna 20%. Fair-value odds: Rayo Vallecano 2.33 | Draw 2.70 | Osasuna 5.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.58. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.58 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Osasuna's lower xG of 0.59 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Rayo Vallecano at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rayo Vallecano offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.58 combined xG gives a 21% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 29% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rayo Vallecano 50% | Osasuna 20% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights