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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rayo Vallecano and Levante share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Regular Season - 28, as Rayo Vallecano and Levante drew 1-1 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 1.73 xG and Levante 0.88 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 0.96 / defence 0.87 against Levante attack 0.90 / defence 1.16, drawn from 65/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 57% | Draw 24% | Levante 18%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 41%, Levante 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Levante's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rayo Vallecano 1.15 PPG, Levante 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights