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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rayo Vallecano and Girona share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Regular Season - 35, as Rayo Vallecano and Girona drew 1-1 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 1.33 xG and Girona 0.93 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 0.93 / defence 0.90 against Girona attack 0.90 / defence 0.94, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 46% | Draw 28% | Girona 26%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 42%, Girona 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Girona's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rayo Vallecano 1.31 PPG, Girona 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights