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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Rayo Vallecano edge out Elche 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rayo Vallecano beat Elche 1-0 at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Regular Season - 30, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 1.89 xG and Elche 0.86 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rayo Vallecano fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Elche landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 0.90 / defence 0.86 against Elche attack 0.86 / defence 1.33, drawn from 67/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 61% | Draw 22% | Elche 16%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 38%, Elche 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.

Elche's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rayo Vallecano 1.10 PPG, Elche 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rayo Vallecano win broke the near-deadlock. Elche (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights