Osasuna vs Sevilla – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Osasuna at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Osasuna vs Sevilla encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Sevilla travel to Estadio El Sadar to take on Osasuna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna's home record at Estadio El Sadar: 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sevilla — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sevilla, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sevilla's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Osasuna) versus 1.20 (Sevilla). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Osasuna register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sevilla in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Osasuna, 2 for Sevilla and 4 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2026, ended 0–2 with Sevilla winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Osasuna in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sevilla in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 54% versus Sevilla 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 48% | Sevilla 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.41 xG and Sevilla 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.749 / defence 0.876 | Sevilla attack 1.163 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.242. Osasuna's attack strength of 0.749 is below the league average — the 1.41 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sevilla bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing Osasuna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Osasuna games / 50 Sevilla games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 38% | Draw 30% | Sevilla 32%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Sevilla 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osasuna are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 60% | Sevilla 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Sevilla | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 38% | Draw 30% | Sevilla 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Osasuna 1.41 / Sevilla 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.749 / def 0.876 | Sevilla attack 1.163 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.561 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Sevilla xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Sevilla kick off?
Osasuna vs Sevilla is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 28 February 2027 at Estadio El Sadar.
Where is Osasuna vs Sevilla being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Sevilla part of?
Osasuna vs Sevilla is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Sevilla?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 38% chance of winning, Sevilla a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Sevilla?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Osasuna and Sevilla will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Sevilla have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Sevilla?
Record (10 meetings): Osasuna 4W | Draws 4 | Sevilla 2W.
What form are Osasuna and Sevilla in?
Osasuna (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Sevilla (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Osasuna's attack rating (0.75) and Sevilla's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sevilla's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
38%
2.60
30%
3.33
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.68
1.26
Sevilla xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
11%
9.22
8%
13.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.3 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Sevilla?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Sevilla expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.26 for Sevilla, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Sevilla?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Osasuna have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 14W 12D 24L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sevilla's form line: 17W 10D 23L from 50 games, 1.22 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D. The sample for Sevilla is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.08 PPG, Sevilla on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Osasuna have posted 1.64 PPG from 25 outings (11W 8D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Osasuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sevilla have gone 7W 5D 13L from 25 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Osasuna are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Sevilla are on 1.26 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sevilla in 60%.
Last 50 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Sevilla
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Sevilla in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 14W 12D 24L in their last 50 games (1.08 PPG), while Sevilla have gone 17W 10D 23L in their last 50 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Sevilla away?
Osasuna's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.64 PPG; Sevilla away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Osasuna and Sevilla runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 26 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Osasuna's record when hosting Sevilla specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Osasuna
4
Draws
2
Sevilla
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Sevilla?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 4, Sevilla have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Sevilla last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2026, when Sevilla 2-0 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Sevilla?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 64%, Sevilla 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Osasuna) and 60% (Sevilla).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Sevilla away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Sevilla?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Osasuna's games and 64% of Sevilla's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osasuna vs Sevilla usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Osasuna's recent games and 60% of Sevilla's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Sevilla tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Sevilla in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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