Osasuna vs Sevilla Prediction & Preview
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Osasuna face Sevilla.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Sevilla travel to Estadio El Sadar to take on Osasuna in La Liga (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 February 2027 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Osasuna stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Osasuna's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sevilla — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sevilla's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Osasuna) versus 1.20 (Sevilla). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Osasuna's games and 70% of Sevilla's (from Osasuna's last 10 home games and Sevilla's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 10 H2H matches we hold have produced 4 wins for Osasuna, 2 for Sevilla and 4 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 10 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2026, ended Osasuna 0–2 Sevilla — a Sevilla win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Osasuna in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sevilla in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 54% versus Sevilla 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 48% | Sevilla 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.42 xG and Sevilla 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.769 / defence 0.897 | Sevilla attack 1.165 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.218. Osasuna's attack rating of 0.769 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.42. Sevilla's defence rating of 1.215 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Osasuna's projected output up. Data: built from Osasuna's last 50 games and Sevilla's last 50.
Result probabilities: Osasuna 39% | Draw 30% | Sevilla 32%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.58 | Draw 3.39 | Sevilla 3.15. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osasuna are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Osasuna's last 10 home games and Sevilla's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.9 goals per game across 10 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Osasuna 60% (last 10 home games) | Sevilla 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Sevilla | Competition: La Liga, matchday 26 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 28 February 2027 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 39% | Draw 30% | Sevilla 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Osasuna 1.42 / Sevilla 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.769 / def 0.897 | Sevilla attack 1.165 / def 1.215 | league avg home 1.524 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Sevilla xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Osasuna vs Sevilla FAQs
What time does Osasuna vs Sevilla kick off?
Osasuna vs Sevilla is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 28 February 2027 at Estadio El Sadar.
Where is Osasuna vs Sevilla being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Sevilla part of?
Osasuna vs Sevilla is a La Liga fixture (matchday 26) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Sevilla?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 39% chance of winning, Sevilla a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Sevilla?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Osasuna and Sevilla will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Osasuna vs Sevilla have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Osasuna's attack rating (0.77) and Sevilla's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sevilla's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Osasuna's last 50 games and Sevilla's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
39%
2.58
30%
3.39
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.70
1.27
Sevilla xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
11%
9.21
8%
13.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.2 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Osasuna vs Sevilla Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Sevilla?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Sevilla expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.27 for Sevilla, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Sevilla?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Osasuna have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 14W 12D 24L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Sevilla's form line: 17W 10D 23L from 50 games, 1.22 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.08 PPG, Sevilla on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Osasuna have posted 1.64 PPG from their last 25 home games (11W 8D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Osasuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sevilla have gone 7W 5D 13L from their last 25 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Osasuna are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Sevilla are on 1.26 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sevilla in 60%.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Sevilla
Blended
Osasuna (Home) vs Sevilla (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Osasuna
Blended
Sevilla
Blended
❓ Osasuna vs Sevilla Form FAQs
What form are Osasuna and Sevilla in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 14W 12D 24L in their last 50 games (1.08 PPG), while Sevilla have gone 17W 10D 23L in their last 50 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Sevilla away?
Osasuna's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.64 PPG; Sevilla away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 26 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Osasuna's record when hosting Sevilla specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Osasuna
4
Draws
2
Sevilla
Recent Meetings
❓ Osasuna vs Sevilla H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Sevilla?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Osasuna have won 4, Sevilla have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Sevilla last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 October 2026: Sevilla 2-0 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Sevilla?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 64%, Sevilla 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Osasuna) and 60% (Sevilla).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Sevilla away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Osasuna vs Sevilla Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Osasuna and Sevilla matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Osasuna's games and 64% of Sevilla's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Osasuna and Sevilla matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Osasuna's recent games and 60% of Sevilla's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Sevilla matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Osasuna's recent matches and 64% of Sevilla's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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