Osasuna 2-4 Real Madrid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Real Madrid (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Osasuna face Real Madrid.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Osasuna and Real Madrid meet at Estadio El Sadar in La Liga, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 March 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Osasuna (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Osasuna's home record at Estadio El Sadar: 6W 2D 2L from 10 La Liga appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio El Sadar.
Real Madrid's overall La Liga record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Real Madrid's away record: 6W 4D 0L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Real Madrid are 0.70 PPG clear of Osasuna in recent La Liga fixtures (2.40 vs 1.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across the last 5 meetings, Real Madrid have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Osasuna's 0, with 2 draws in the mix.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 0–4 with Real Madrid winning.
It is worth noting that Real Madrid have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Osasuna — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Real Madrid — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 44% versus Real Madrid 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 36% | Real Madrid 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.01 xG and Real Madrid 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.880 / defence 1.016 | Real Madrid attack 1.286 / defence 0.798. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.104. Real Madrid's defence strength of 0.798 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Real Madrid have an above-average attack strength of 1.286 — the away xG of 1.44 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 66 Osasuna games / 66 Real Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 24% | Draw 31% | Real Madrid 45%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 4.17 | Draw 3.23 | Real Madrid 2.22. Real Madrid hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Real Madrid are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Real Madrid if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Osasuna 40% | Real Madrid 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Real Madrid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 24% | Draw 31% | Real Madrid 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Osasuna 1.01 / Real Madrid 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.880 / def 1.016 | Real Madrid attack 1.286 / def 0.798 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Real Madrid (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Real Madrid xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Real Madrid kick off?
Osasuna vs Real Madrid kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Real Madrid?
Osasuna 2 - 4 Real Madrid.
Where is Osasuna vs Real Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Real Madrid part of?
Osasuna vs Real Madrid is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Real Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 24% chance of winning, Real Madrid a 45% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Real Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Real Madrid?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Osasuna and Real Madrid will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Real Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Real Madrid?
Record (5 meetings): Osasuna 0W | Draws 2 | Real Madrid 3W.
What form are Osasuna and Real Madrid in?
Osasuna (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Real Madrid (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Osasuna's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Real Madrid's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — Real Madrid's attack (1.29x) against Osasuna's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Madrid Win
24%
4.10
31%
3.26
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.45
1.44
Real Madrid xG
4.10
24%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
6%
17.36
16%
6.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Real Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Real Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.44 for Real Madrid, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Real Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 66 outings, Osasuna have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 25W 14D 27L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Real Madrid's form line: 45W 12D 9L from 66 games, 2.23 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Real Madrid are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Osasuna.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Osasuna have posted 1.67 PPG from 33 outings (17W 4D 12L).
On the road, Real Madrid have gone 20W 5D 8L from 33 away games — 1.97 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Osasuna are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Real Madrid are on 2.05 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Real Madrid in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Current Season
Real Madrid
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Real Madrid in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 25W 14D 27L in their last 66 games (1.35 PPG), while Real Madrid have gone 45W 12D 9L in their last 66 (2.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Real Madrid away?
Real Madrid's away record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.67 PPG; Real Madrid away: 1.97 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Real Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Real Madrid in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Real Madrid won 4-0 on 7 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osasuna have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Real Madrid — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Osasuna
3
Draws
6
Real Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Real Madrid?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 1, Real Madrid have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Real Madrid last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Osasuna 2-1 Real Madrid.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Real Madrid?
Real Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Real Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 39%, Real Madrid 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Osasuna) and 52% (Real Madrid).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Real Madrid in 39%; Osasuna have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Real Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Real Madrid?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Osasuna's recent matches and 52% of Real Madrid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Real Madrid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Osasuna's recent games and 52% of Real Madrid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Real Madrid tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Real Madrid in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Real Madrid cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Osasuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Madrid beat Osasuna 2-4 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 29, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.01 xG and Real Madrid 1.44 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Osasuna beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Real Madrid outscored their 1.44 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.88 / defence 1.02 against Real Madrid attack 1.29 / defence 0.80, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 24% | Draw 31% | Real Madrid 45%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 36%, Real Madrid 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Real Madrid's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Real Madrid (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.