Osasuna 2-4 Real Madrid – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Real Madrid (45%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Osasuna face Real Madrid.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Osasuna and Real Madrid meet at Estadio El Sadar in La Liga (matchday 29). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 March 2024 at 15:15 UK time.

Form

Osasuna (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Osasuna's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Real Madrid's record over their last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L (2.40 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Real Madrid's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 4D 0L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Real Madrid are 0.70 PPG clear of Osasuna over their recent games (2.40 vs 1.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

The head-to-head sample leans to Real Madrid, who have 3 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended Osasuna 0–4 Real Madrid — a Real Madrid win.

Real Madrid have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

Trading & In-Play

Osasuna — key trading statistics (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Real Madrid — key trading statistics (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 44% versus Real Madrid 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 36% | Real Madrid 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.01 xG and Real Madrid 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.880 / defence 1.016 | Real Madrid attack 1.286 / defence 0.798. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.104. Real Madrid bring a tight defence (rating 0.798, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Osasuna's projected output down. Real Madrid have an above-average attack rating of 1.286, which lifts their away xG to 1.44. Data: built from Osasuna's last 66 games and Real Madrid's last 66.

Result probabilities: Osasuna 24% | Draw 31% | Real Madrid 45%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 4.10 | Draw 3.26 | Real Madrid 2.22. Real Madrid hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Real Madrid are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Real Madrid if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Osasuna 40% (last 10 home games) | Real Madrid 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights