Girona 2-0 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Girona at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Girona vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadi Municipal de Montilivi plays host to Girona versus Osasuna in La Liga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Girona (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Girona have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Girona are significantly better at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi than their overall form suggests.
Osasuna have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Osasuna have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Girona against 1.70 for Osasuna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Girona lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 4–2 with Girona winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Girona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Osasuna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 65% versus Osasuna 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 60% | Osasuna 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 2.10 xG and Osasuna 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.507 / defence 0.930 | Osasuna attack 0.939 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.112. Girona carry an above-average attack strength of 1.507 — their λ of 2.10 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 65 Girona games / 65 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Girona 62% | Draw 24% | Osasuna 15%. Fair-value odds: Girona 1.61 | Draw 4.17 | Osasuna 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Girona (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Girona as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Girona 50% | Osasuna 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 62% | Draw 24% | Osasuna 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 56% | xG Girona 2.10 / Osasuna 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 1.507 / def 0.930 | Osasuna attack 0.939 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Girona (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Girona xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Osasuna xG
56%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Osasuna kick off?
Girona vs Osasuna kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Osasuna?
Girona 2 - 0 Osasuna.
Where is Girona vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Osasuna part of?
Girona vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 62% chance of winning, Osasuna a 15% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Girona and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Osasuna?
Record (3 meetings): Girona 1W | Draws 1 | Osasuna 1W.
What form are Girona and Osasuna in?
Girona (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Osasuna (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Girona's attacking strength (1.51x league average) is weighed against Osasuna's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.10. Flip it around — Osasuna's attack (0.94x) against Girona's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
62%
1.62
24%
4.23
15%
6.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Girona xG
Total xG
3.07
0.97
Osasuna xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
6.77
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
12%
8.17
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
2%
55.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Girona and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Girona and 0.97 for Osasuna, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Osasuna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Girona's recent record stands at 31W 15D 19L from 65 games, a 1.66 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osasuna, meanwhile, have gone 25W 14D 26L across 65 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.66 PPG for Girona against 1.37 for Osasuna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Girona have managed 20W 5D 7L from 32 games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Osasuna's away record stands at 8W 10D 14L across 32 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Girona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Girona are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.05 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Girona have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 31W 15D 19L in their last 65 games (1.66 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 25W 14D 26L in their last 65 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Osasuna away?
Girona's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 2.03 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Girona or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Girona have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Osasuna in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Girona won 4-0 on 29 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Girona have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Osasuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Girona
1
Draws
3
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Osasuna?
From 8 meetings on record, Girona have won 4, Osasuna have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Osasuna 1-0 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Osasuna?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Girona see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 62%, Osasuna 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Girona) and 34% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Osasuna in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Osasuna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Girona's games and 50% of Osasuna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Girona vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 66% of Girona's recent games and 34% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Girona and Osasuna tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Girona cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Osasuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Osasuna 2-0 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 28, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 2.10 xG and Osasuna 0.97 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Osasuna landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 1.51 / defence 0.93 against Osasuna attack 0.94 / defence 0.98, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 62% | Draw 24% | Osasuna 15%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 60%, Osasuna 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Osasuna's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Girona 1.66 PPG, Osasuna 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Girona win broke the near-deadlock. Girona (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Osasuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.