Las Palmas 0-1 Almeria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Las Palmas at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Las Palmas vs Almeria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Las Palmas host Almeria at Estadio de Gran Canaria in La Liga, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 March 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Las Palmas — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Las Palmas's home record at Estadio de Gran Canaria: 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all La Liga games this season, Almeria have recorded 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Almeria have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Las Palmas have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Las Palmas have won 1, Almeria 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 2–1 with Las Palmas winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Las Palmas in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Almeria in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Las Palmas 43% versus Almeria 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Las Palmas 32% | Almeria 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Las Palmas 1.50 xG and Almeria 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Las Palmas attack 0.849 / defence 1.001 | Almeria attack 0.900 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.111. Almeria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing Las Palmas's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Las Palmas games / 66 Almeria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Las Palmas 47% | Draw 29% | Almeria 24%. Fair-value odds: Las Palmas 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Almeria 4.17. Las Palmas hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Las Palmas are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Las Palmas offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Las Palmas 50% | Almeria 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Las Palmas vs Almeria | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estadio de Gran Canaria • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Mar 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Las Palmas 47% | Draw 29% | Almeria 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Las Palmas 1.50 / Almeria 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Las Palmas attack 0.849 / def 1.001 | Almeria attack 0.900 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Las Palmas (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Las Palmas xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Almeria xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Las Palmas vs Almeria kick off?
Las Palmas vs Almeria kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 17 March 2024 at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What was the final score in Las Palmas vs Almeria?
Las Palmas 0 - 1 Almeria.
Where is Las Palmas vs Almeria being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What competition is Las Palmas vs Almeria part of?
Las Palmas vs Almeria is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Las Palmas vs Almeria?
Our statistical model gives Las Palmas a 47% chance of winning, Almeria a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Las Palmas the favourite.
Will both teams score in Las Palmas vs Almeria?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Las Palmas and Almeria will score (BTTS).
Will Las Palmas vs Almeria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Almeria?
Record (1 meetings): Las Palmas 1W | Draws 0 | Almeria 0W.
What form are Las Palmas and Almeria in?
Las Palmas (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Almeria (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Las Palmas's attack rating (0.85) and Almeria's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Almeria's attack versus Las Palmas's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Las Palmas Win
47%
2.12
29%
3.41
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Las Palmas xG
Total xG
2.50
1.00
Almeria xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
5%
18.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Las Palmas vs Almeria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Las Palmas and Almeria expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Las Palmas and 1.00 for Almeria, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Las Palmas vs Almeria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 28 outings, Las Palmas have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 10W 7D 11L record — W-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Almeria's form line: 0W 10D 18L from 28 games, 0.36 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-D.
Put side by side, Las Palmas are the form team by 0.96 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Almeria.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Las Palmas have posted 1.57 PPG from 14 outings (6W 4D 4L).
On the road, Almeria have gone 0W 2D 12L from 14 away games — 0.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Las Palmas come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Las Palmas are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Almeria are on 0.96 scored and 2.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria in 64%.
Last 28 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Las Palmas
Current Season
Almeria
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Las Palmas and Almeria in coming into this match?
Las Palmas have gone 10W 7D 11L in their last 28 games (1.32 PPG), while Almeria have gone 0W 10D 18L in their last 28 (0.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Las Palmas at home or Almeria away?
Las Palmas's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Las Palmas at home: 1.57 PPG; Almeria away: 0.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Las Palmas and Almeria runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Las Palmas
0
Draws
1
Almeria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Almeria?
From 2 meetings on record, Las Palmas have won 1, Almeria have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Las Palmas and Almeria last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2024, when Las Palmas 0-1 Almeria.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Las Palmas see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Las Palmas 50%, Almeria 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Las Palmas) and 64% (Almeria).
On the defensive side: Las Palmas keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Almeria in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Las Palmas home games / Almeria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Las Palmas play Almeria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Las Palmas's games and 71% of Almeria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Las Palmas vs Almeria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Las Palmas's recent games and 64% of Almeria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Las Palmas and Almeria tend to score early?
Las Palmas have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Almeria in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Almeria defy the odds to beat Las Palmas 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almeria beat Las Palmas 0-1 at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 29, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 1.50 xG and Almeria 1.00 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Las Palmas fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 0.85 / defence 1.00 against Almeria attack 0.90 / defence 1.23, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 47% | Draw 29% | Almeria 24%, with Las Palmas to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Almeria win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Las Palmas 32%, Almeria 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Las Palmas's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Almeria's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Las Palmas arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.36. Form was overturned, with Almeria winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Las Palmas (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Almeria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.