Osasuna 1-1 Real Betis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 51%, yet the head-to-head data favours Real Betis — this Osasuna vs Real Betis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio El Sadar plays host to Osasuna versus Real Betis in La Liga (matchday 31). Kick-off: Sunday 12 April 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Osasuna's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Osasuna at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Real Betis (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Real Betis's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Osasuna's last 10 home games and Real Betis's last 10 away games) — Osasuna have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Real Betis in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Real Betis have the stronger record — 6 wins to Osasuna's 1, with 1 draw.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.9 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2025, ended Osasuna 0–2 Real Betis — a Real Betis win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Real Betis have won 6 of 8 H2H matches, and at 2.9 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
Osasuna half-time and goal-timing data (last 68 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Real Betis half-time and goal-timing data (last 68 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Osasuna 57% and Real Betis 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 46% | Real Betis 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Osasuna surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Real Betis have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 53% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Real Betis surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Osasuna recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.71 xG and Real Betis 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.075 / defence 1.040 | Real Betis attack 0.981 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.569 / away 1.122. Data: built from Osasuna's last 68 games and Real Betis's last 68.
Result probabilities: Osasuna 51% | Draw 24% | Real Betis 25%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 1.97 | Draw 4.19 | Real Betis 3.93. Osasuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osasuna if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Osasuna's last 10 home games and Real Betis's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Osasuna 70% (last 10 home games) | Real Betis 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Real Betis | Competition: La Liga, matchday 31 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 12 April 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 51% | Draw 24% | Real Betis 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Osasuna 1.71 / Real Betis 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 1.075 / def 1.040 | Real Betis attack 0.981 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.569 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Real Betis xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Osasuna vs Real Betis FAQs
What time does Osasuna vs Real Betis kick off?
Osasuna vs Real Betis kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Real Betis?
Osasuna 1 - 1 Real Betis.
Where is Osasuna vs Real Betis being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Real Betis part of?
Osasuna vs Real Betis is a La Liga fixture (matchday 31) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Real Betis?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 51% chance of winning, Real Betis a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Real Betis?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Osasuna and Real Betis will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Osasuna vs Real Betis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Osasuna's attack at 1.07x the league average against Real Betis's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Real Betis's attack (0.98x) against Osasuna's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from Osasuna's last 68 games and Real Betis's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
51%
1.97
24%
4.19
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.86
1.15
Real Betis xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
18%
5.55
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
5%
21.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.3 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Osasuna vs Real Betis Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Real Betis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Real Betis expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.15 for Real Betis, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Real Betis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Osasuna's recent record stands at 22W 24D 22L from 68 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-D in the last five.
Real Betis, meanwhile, have gone 27W 24D 17L across 68 games — 1.54 PPG, with D-L-D-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Osasuna against 1.54 for Real Betis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 18W 10D 5L from their last 33 home games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Osasuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Real Betis's away record stands at 11W 11D 11L across their last 33 away games, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Osasuna are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Real Betis are on 1.49 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Real Betis in 68%.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Current Season
Real Betis
Current Season
Osasuna (Home) vs Real Betis (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Osasuna
Current Season
Real Betis
Current Season
❓ Osasuna vs Real Betis Form FAQs
What form are Osasuna and Real Betis in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 22W 24D 22L in their last 68 games (1.32 PPG), while Real Betis have gone 27W 24D 17L in their last 68 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Real Betis away?
Osasuna's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.94 PPG; Real Betis away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Real Betis won Real Betis 4-1 Osasuna on 3 Apr 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osasuna have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Real Betis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Osasuna
2
Draws
7
Real Betis
Recent Meetings
❓ Osasuna vs Real Betis H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Real Betis?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Osasuna have won 1, Real Betis have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Real Betis last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Real Betis 5-2 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Real Betis?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 83% of those situations.
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Osasuna, 73% for Real Betis — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Osasuna) and 52% (Real Betis).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Real Betis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Osasuna vs Real Betis Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Osasuna and Real Betis matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Osasuna's games and 73% of Real Betis's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Osasuna and Real Betis matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Osasuna's recent games and 52% of Real Betis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Real Betis matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 91% of Osasuna's recent matches and 73% of Real Betis's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osasuna and Real Betis share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna and Real Betis finished level at 1-1 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 31, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.71 xG and Real Betis 1.15 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.07 / defence 1.04 against Real Betis attack 0.98 / defence 1.02, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 51% | Draw 24% | Real Betis 25%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 46%, Real Betis 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Real Betis's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.32 PPG, Real Betis 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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