Osasuna 2-0 Racing Santander – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Osasuna at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Racing Santander fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Osasuna and Racing Santander meet at Estadio El Sadar in La Liga, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Osasuna's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna's home record at Estadio El Sadar: 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Racing Santander have collected 1.00 PPG across 8 La Liga outings this season: 2W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L L D. They are scoring at 1.62 per game and conceding 2.88. Conceding 2.88 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Racing Santander, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Racing Santander's form when playing away from home: 0W 0D 4L across 4 road games this term (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 4.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Osasuna against 1.00 for Racing Santander. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Osasuna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Racing Santander goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 75%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Osasuna 50% and Racing Santander 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Osasuna 50% | Racing Santander 88%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.99 xG and Racing Santander 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.710 / defence 0.936 | Racing Santander attack 0.850 / defence 1.736. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.254. Osasuna's attack strength of 0.710 is below the league average — the 1.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Racing Santander bring a strong defensive rating of 1.736 — this is suppressing Osasuna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Osasuna games / 8 Racing Santander games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 59% | Draw 24% | Racing Santander 17%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Racing Santander 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Osasuna (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Osasuna at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 60% | Racing Santander 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Racing Santander | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 59% | Draw 24% | Racing Santander 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG Osasuna 1.99 / Racing Santander 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.710 / def 0.936 | Racing Santander attack 0.850 / def 1.736 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Racing Santander xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Racing Santander kick off?
Osasuna vs Racing Santander kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Racing Santander?
Osasuna 2 - 0 Racing Santander.
Where is Osasuna vs Racing Santander being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Racing Santander part of?
Osasuna vs Racing Santander is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Racing Santander?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 59% chance of winning, Racing Santander a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Racing Santander?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Osasuna and Racing Santander will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Racing Santander have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Racing Santander?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Osasuna and Racing Santander in?
Osasuna (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Racing Santander (all comps): 2W-2D-4L in 8 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.62 / GA 2.88 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Osasuna's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Racing Santander's defensive record (1.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.99. Flip it around — Racing Santander's attack (0.85x) against Osasuna's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 46/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
59%
1.69
24%
4.22
17%
5.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.98
1.00
Racing Santander xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
5.82
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
14%
7.29
Win to Nil
22%
4.59
2%
42.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Racing Santander?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Racing Santander expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.00 for Racing Santander, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Racing Santander?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Osasuna's recent record stands at 2W 2D 4L from 8 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Racing Santander, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 4L across 8 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Racing Santander is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Osasuna against 1.00 for Racing Santander. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Racing Santander's away record stands at 0W 0D 4L across 4 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Racing Santander's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Osasuna are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game recently; Racing Santander are on 1.62 scored and 2.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Racing Santander in 75%.
Last 8 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Racing Santander
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Racing Santander in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 2W 2D 4L in their last 8 games (1.00 PPG), while Racing Santander have gone 2W 2D 4L in their last 8 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Racing Santander away?
Osasuna's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.25 PPG; Racing Santander away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 18 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Osasuna
0
Draws
0
Racing Santander
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Racing Santander?
From 1 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 1, Racing Santander have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Racing Santander last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2026, when Osasuna 2-0 Racing Santander.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Racing Santander?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Racing Santander are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 25%, Racing Santander 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Osasuna) and 75% (Racing Santander).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Osasuna have failed to score in 50% of games; Racing Santander in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Racing Santander away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Racing Santander?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Osasuna's recent matches and 50% of Racing Santander's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Racing Santander usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Osasuna's recent games and 75% of Racing Santander's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Racing Santander tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Racing Santander in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osasuna cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Racing Santander.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Racing Santander 2-0 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 9, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.99 xG and Racing Santander 1.00 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Racing Santander landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.71 / defence 0.94 against Racing Santander attack 0.85 / defence 1.74, drawn from 46/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 59% | Draw 24% | Racing Santander 17%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 50%, Racing Santander 88%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Racing Santander's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.00 PPG, Racing Santander 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm. Racing Santander (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 2 against a 4.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.