Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deportivo La Coruna at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 9 as Deportivo La Coruna welcome Levante to Estadio Municipal de Riazor. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 October 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Deportivo La Coruna have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Deportivo La Coruna have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levante — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Levante have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levante's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Deportivo La Coruna carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Deportivo La Coruna trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Levante trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 75% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Deportivo La Coruna 100% and Levante 25% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deportivo La Coruna 50% | Levante 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportivo La Coruna 1.67 xG and Levante 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportivo La Coruna attack 0.969 / defence 1.069 | Levante attack 0.771 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.142. Data: 4 Deportivo La Coruna games / 41 Levante games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deportivo La Coruna 54% | Draw 24% | Levante 21%. Fair-value odds: Deportivo La Coruna 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Levante 4.76. Deportivo La Coruna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Deportivo La Coruna as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deportivo La Coruna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Deportivo La Coruna 100% | Levante 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de Riazor • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportivo La Coruna 54% | Draw 24% | Levante 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Deportivo La Coruna 1.67 / Levante 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Deportivo La Coruna attack 0.969 / def 1.069 | Levante attack 0.771 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.628 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Deportivo La Coruna (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Deportivo La Coruna xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Levante xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante kick off?
Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Estadio Municipal de Riazor.
Where is Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de Riazor.
What competition is Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante part of?
Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Deportivo La Coruna a 54% chance of winning, Levante a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Deportivo La Coruna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Deportivo La Coruna and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportivo La Coruna and Levante?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Deportivo La Coruna and Levante in?
Deportivo La Coruna (all comps): 2W-2D-0L in 4 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.25 | L5 D-D-W-W. Levante (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Deportivo La Coruna's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Levante's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Levante's attack versus Deportivo La Coruna's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deportivo La Coruna Win
54%
1.84
24%
4.11
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Deportivo La Coruna xG
Total xG
2.61
0.94
Levante xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
4%
24.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.6 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Deportivo La Coruna and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Deportivo La Coruna and 0.94 for Levante, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Deportivo La Coruna's recent record stands at 2W 2D 0L from 4 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-D-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Deportivo La Coruna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Levante, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 1L across 4 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Levante, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Deportivo La Coruna by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Levante heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Deportivo La Coruna are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 1.25 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deportivo La Coruna have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Levante in 25%.
Defensively: Levante in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportivo La Coruna
Early Season
Levante
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deportivo La Coruna and Levante in coming into this match?
Deportivo La Coruna have gone 2W 2D 0L in their last 4 games (2.00 PPG), while Levante have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 (1.25 PPG).
Have Deportivo La Coruna or Levante been keeping clean sheets recently?
Deportivo La Coruna have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Levante in 50%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Deportivo La Coruna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Deportivo La Coruna 100%, Levante 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Deportivo La Coruna) and 50% (Levante).
On the defensive side: Levante in 50%; Levante in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportivo La Coruna home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deportivo La Coruna play Levante?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Deportivo La Coruna's games and 25% of Levante's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Deportivo La Coruna's recent games and 50% of Levante's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Deportivo La Coruna and Levante tend to score early?
Deportivo La Coruna have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Levante in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.