Celta Vigo 2-1 Alaves – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Celta Vigo at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Celta Vigo vs Alaves encounter.

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Analysis

Alaves make the trip to Municipal de Balaídos to face Celta Vigo in La Liga, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 14:15 UTC.

Form

Celta Vigo (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Celta Vigo have posted 3W 1D 6L at Municipal de Balaídos — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Alaves's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Alaves's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Celta Vigo against 1.40 for Alaves. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Celta Vigo have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Alaves in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Celta Vigo lead 4W to 2W over the last 8 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2026, ended 3–4 with Alaves winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Celta Vigo half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Alaves half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Celta Vigo 59% versus Alaves 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Celta Vigo 41% | Alaves 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.34 xG and Alaves 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 0.958 / defence 1.077 | Alaves attack 0.845 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.254. Data: 46 Celta Vigo games / 46 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 40% | Draw 30% | Alaves 30%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Alaves 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Celta Vigo are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Celta Vigo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting point in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Celta Vigo 60% | Alaves 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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