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Prediction vindicated as Osasuna edge out Oviedo 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Osasuna beat Oviedo 3-2 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 20, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 2.05 xG and Oviedo 0.81 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Osasuna beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Oviedo outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.10 / defence 1.01 against Oviedo attack 0.72 / defence 1.32, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Osasuna 65% | Draw 23% | Oviedo 12%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 32%, Oviedo 26%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Osasuna's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.

Oviedo's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.00 PPG, Oviedo 0.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Oviedo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights