Osasuna 3-2 Oviedo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Oviedo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Osasuna host Oviedo at Estadio El Sadar in La Liga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Osasuna — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Estadio El Sadar this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio El Sadar. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Osasuna are significantly better at Estadio El Sadar than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Oviedo stand at 0W 7D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Oviedo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Oviedo have posted 1W 2D 6L from 9 away outings — 0.56 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Osasuna at 0.90 PPG versus Oviedo's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Osasuna have won 0, Oviedo 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Osasuna trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 26% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Oviedo trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 68% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Osasuna 37% | Oviedo 26%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osasuna 32% | Oviedo 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 2.05 xG and Oviedo 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.101 / defence 1.006 | Oviedo attack 0.718 / defence 1.321. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.118. Oviedo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.321 — this is suppressing Osasuna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Osasuna games / 19 Oviedo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 65% | Draw 23% | Oviedo 12%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 1.54 | Draw 4.35 | Oviedo 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Osasuna (65%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osasuna are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 50% | Oviedo 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Oviedo | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 65% | Draw 23% | Oviedo 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 50% | xG Osasuna 2.05 / Oviedo 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 1.101 / def 1.006 | Oviedo attack 0.718 / def 1.321 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Oviedo xG
50%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Oviedo kick off?
Osasuna vs Oviedo kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Oviedo?
Osasuna 3 - 2 Oviedo.
Where is Osasuna vs Oviedo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Oviedo part of?
Osasuna vs Oviedo is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Oviedo?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 65% chance of winning, Oviedo a 12% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Oviedo?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Osasuna and Oviedo will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Oviedo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Oviedo?
Record (1 meetings): Osasuna 0W | Draws 1 | Oviedo 0W.
What form are Osasuna and Oviedo in?
Osasuna (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Oviedo (all comps): 0W-7D-3L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Osasuna's attack at 1.10x the league average against Oviedo's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 2.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Oviedo's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
65%
1.54
23%
4.41
12%
8.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.86
0.81
Oviedo xG
1.54
65%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
8.10
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
13%
7.80
Win to Nil
29%
3.45
2%
63.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Oviedo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Oviedo expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Osasuna and 0.81 for Oviedo, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Oviedo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, Osasuna have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 5W 4D 10L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Oviedo's form line: 2W 7D 10L from 19 games, 0.68 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-D. The sample for Oviedo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.00 PPG, Oviedo on 0.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Osasuna have posted 1.89 PPG from 9 outings (5W 2D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Osasuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Oviedo have gone 1W 2D 6L from 9 away games — 0.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osasuna are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Oviedo are on 0.47 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Oviedo in 26%.
Last 19 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Oviedo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Oviedo in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 5W 4D 10L in their last 19 games (1.00 PPG), while Oviedo have gone 2W 7D 10L in their last 19 (0.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Oviedo away?
Osasuna's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.89 PPG; Oviedo away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Osasuna
1
Draws
0
Oviedo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Oviedo?
From 2 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 1, Oviedo have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Oviedo last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Osasuna 3-2 Oviedo.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Oviedo?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 78% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Oviedo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 56%, Oviedo 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Osasuna) and 33% (Oviedo).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Oviedo in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Oviedo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Oviedo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Osasuna's recent matches and 33% of Oviedo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Oviedo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Osasuna's recent games and 33% of Oviedo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Oviedo tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Oviedo in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Osasuna edge out Oviedo 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Oviedo 3-2 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 20, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 2.05 xG and Oviedo 0.81 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Osasuna beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Oviedo outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.10 / defence 1.01 against Oviedo attack 0.72 / defence 1.32, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 65% | Draw 23% | Oviedo 12%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 32%, Oviedo 26%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
Oviedo's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.00 PPG, Oviedo 0.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Oviedo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.