Osasuna 2-2 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Osasuna at 63% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Osasuna vs Mallorca encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Osasuna welcome Mallorca to Estadio El Sadar in La Liga (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 7 March 2026 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Osasuna — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Osasuna's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Mallorca stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Mallorca have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
On current form, Osasuna have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 9 H2H matches, Osasuna have won 3, Mallorca 2, with 4 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Nov 2025, ended Osasuna 2–2 Mallorca — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Osasuna in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 94% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Mallorca in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 56% versus Mallorca 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 44% | Mallorca 48%). Note also that Mallorca surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Osasuna recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.97 xG and Mallorca 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.160 / defence 1.055 | Mallorca attack 0.729 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.133. Mallorca's attack rating of 0.729 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.87. Data: built from Osasuna's last 64 games and Mallorca's last 64.
Result probabilities: Osasuna 63% | Draw 21% | Mallorca 16%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 1.59 | Draw 4.68 | Mallorca 6.36. The model has a clear lean to Osasuna (63%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Osasuna's last 10 home games and Mallorca's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Osasuna 80% (last 10 home games) | Mallorca 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, matchday 27 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 63% | Draw 21% | Mallorca 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Osasuna 1.97 / Mallorca 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 1.160 / def 1.055 | Mallorca attack 0.729 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Mallorca xG
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Osasuna vs Mallorca FAQs
What time does Osasuna vs Mallorca kick off?
Osasuna vs Mallorca kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Mallorca?
Osasuna 2 - 2 Mallorca.
Where is Osasuna vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Mallorca part of?
Osasuna vs Mallorca is a La Liga fixture (matchday 27) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 63% chance of winning, Mallorca a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Osasuna and Mallorca will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Osasuna vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Osasuna's attack at 1.16x the league average against Mallorca's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mallorca's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Osasuna's last 64 games and Mallorca's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
63%
1.59
21%
4.68
16%
6.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.84
0.87
Mallorca xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
6.36
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
14%
7.18
Win to Nil
26%
3.80
2%
45.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Osasuna vs Mallorca Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Osasuna and 0.87 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Mallorca?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 64 outings, Osasuna have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 21W 22D 21L record — D-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Mallorca's form line: 19W 15D 30L from 64 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.33 PPG, Mallorca on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Osasuna have posted 1.94 PPG from their last 31 home games (17W 9D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Osasuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Mallorca have gone 7W 5D 19L from their last 31 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osasuna are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 1.00 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Mallorca
Blended
Osasuna (Home) vs Mallorca (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Osasuna
Blended
Mallorca
Blended
❓ Osasuna vs Mallorca Form FAQs
What form are Osasuna and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 21W 22D 21L in their last 64 games (1.33 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 19W 15D 30L in their last 64 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Mallorca away?
Osasuna's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.94 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Osasuna's record when hosting Mallorca specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Osasuna
5
Draws
2
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Osasuna vs Mallorca H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Mallorca?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Osasuna have won 3, Mallorca have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Mallorca last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: Osasuna 2-2 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Mallorca?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 71%, Mallorca 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Osasuna) and 48% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Mallorca in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Osasuna vs Mallorca Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Osasuna and Mallorca matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Osasuna's games and 45% of Mallorca's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Osasuna and Mallorca matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Osasuna's recent games and 48% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Mallorca matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 94% of Osasuna's recent matches and 64% of Mallorca's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osasuna and Mallorca share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 27, as Osasuna and Mallorca drew 2-2 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.97 xG and Mallorca 0.87 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Mallorca outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.16 / defence 1.05 against Mallorca attack 0.73 / defence 1.13, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 63% | Draw 21% | Mallorca 16%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 44%, Mallorca 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Mallorca's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.33 PPG, Mallorca 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Osasuna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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