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Prediction vindicated as Osasuna edge out Girona 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Osasuna beat Girona 1-0 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 29, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.74 xG and Girona 1.26 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Girona landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.14 / defence 1.14 against Girona attack 0.98 / defence 0.99, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Osasuna 48% | Draw 25% | Girona 27%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 46%, Girona 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Osasuna's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Girona's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.30 PPG, Girona 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Girona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights