Osasuna vs Celta Vigo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Celta Vigo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Osasuna host Celta Vigo at Estadio El Sadar in La Liga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Osasuna — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Osasuna have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Osasuna at Estadio El Sadar this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Osasuna are significantly better at Estadio El Sadar than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Celta Vigo stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Celta Vigo have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Celta Vigo have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Osasuna 1.00 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Osasuna register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Celta Vigo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Osasuna have won 5, Celta Vigo 4, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2026, ended 2–1 with Osasuna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Osasuna in-play and half-time data (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Celta Vigo in-play and half-time data (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 54% versus Celta Vigo 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 49% | Celta Vigo 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 0.98 xG and Celta Vigo 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.784 / defence 0.846 | Celta Vigo attack 0.892 / defence 0.778. League average goals — home 1.609 / away 1.139. Osasuna's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Celta Vigo's defence strength of 0.778 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 41 Osasuna games / 41 Celta Vigo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 37% | Draw 32% | Celta Vigo 31%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Celta Vigo 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.84 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. This conflicts with form data: Osasuna 70% | Celta Vigo 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Celta Vigo | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 37% | Draw 32% | Celta Vigo 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Osasuna 0.98 / Celta Vigo 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.784 / def 0.846 | Celta Vigo attack 0.892 / def 0.778 | league avg home 1.609 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Celta Vigo xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Celta Vigo kick off?
Osasuna vs Celta Vigo is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 14 March 2027 at Estadio El Sadar.
Where is Osasuna vs Celta Vigo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Celta Vigo part of?
Osasuna vs Celta Vigo is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Celta Vigo?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 37% chance of winning, Celta Vigo a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Celta Vigo?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Osasuna and Celta Vigo will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Celta Vigo?
Record (10 meetings): Osasuna 5W | Draws 1 | Celta Vigo 4W.
What form are Osasuna and Celta Vigo in?
Osasuna (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Celta Vigo (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Osasuna's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Celta Vigo's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Celta Vigo's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
37%
2.70
32%
3.09
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Osasuna xG
Total xG
1.84
0.86
Celta Vigo xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.77
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
16%
6.37
11%
8.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 13.6 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Celta Vigo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Celta Vigo expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Osasuna and 0.86 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Celta Vigo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Osasuna's recent record stands at 13W 10D 18L from 41 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Osasuna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Celta Vigo, meanwhile, have gone 14W 14D 13L across 41 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-D-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Celta Vigo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.20 PPG, Celta Vigo on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 10W 6D 5L from 21 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Osasuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Celta Vigo's away record stands at 8W 9D 4L across 21 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Osasuna are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Celta Vigo are on 1.32 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Celta Vigo in 61%.
Last 41 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Early Season
Celta Vigo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Celta Vigo in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 13W 10D 18L in their last 41 games (1.20 PPG), while Celta Vigo have gone 14W 14D 13L in their last 41 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Celta Vigo away?
Osasuna's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.71 PPG; Celta Vigo away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 27 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Osasuna go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Feb 2024, when Celta Vigo won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osasuna's record when hosting Celta Vigo specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Osasuna
1
Draws
4
Celta Vigo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Celta Vigo?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 5, Celta Vigo have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Celta Vigo last play each other?
They last met on 27 August 2026, when Celta Vigo 1-2 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Celta Vigo?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 67%, Celta Vigo 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Osasuna) and 38% (Celta Vigo).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Celta Vigo in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Celta Vigo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Celta Vigo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Osasuna's games and 57% of Celta Vigo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osasuna vs Celta Vigo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Osasuna's recent games and 38% of Celta Vigo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Celta Vigo tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Celta Vigo in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.