Levante vs Osasuna – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Levante at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levante vs Osasuna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Osasuna make the trip to to face Levante in La Liga, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Levante (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Levante have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levante's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Levante are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Osasuna have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Osasuna have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Osasuna away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Levante's favour (1.70 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Levante lead 1W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Levante — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Osasuna — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 49% versus Osasuna 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 46% | Osasuna 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 2.05 xG and Osasuna 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 1.338 / defence 1.063 | Osasuna attack 1.016 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.609 / away 1.139. Levante carry an above-average attack strength of 1.338 — their λ of 2.05 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 41 Levante games / 41 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levante 56% | Draw 21% | Osasuna 22%. Fair-value odds: Levante 1.79 | Draw 4.76 | Osasuna 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Levante (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.05 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Levante at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.28 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: Levante 40% | Osasuna 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 56% | Draw 21% | Osasuna 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 62% | xG Levante 2.05 / Osasuna 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 1.338 / def 1.063 | Osasuna attack 1.016 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.609 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Levante (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Levante xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Osasuna xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levante vs Osasuna kick off?
Levante vs Osasuna is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 21 March 2027.
What competition is Levante vs Osasuna part of?
Levante vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 56% chance of winning, Osasuna a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Levante the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Levante and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Levante vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Osasuna?
Record (5 meetings): Levante 1W | Draws 2 | Osasuna 2W.
What form are Levante and Osasuna in?
Levante (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Osasuna (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Levante's attack at 1.34x the league average against Osasuna's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 2.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Osasuna's attack (1.02x) against Levante's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Levante Win
56%
1.78
21%
4.72
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Levante xG
Total xG
3.28
1.23
Osasuna xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
13%
7.78
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
3%
34.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Levante and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Levante and 1.23 for Osasuna, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Osasuna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, Levante have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 12W 10D 19L record — W-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Levante, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Osasuna's form line: 13W 10D 18L from 41 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Osasuna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Levante against 1.20 for Osasuna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Levante have posted 1.45 PPG from 20 outings (8W 5D 7L).
On the road, Osasuna have gone 3W 4D 13L from 20 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Osasuna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Levante come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Levante are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.15 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 41 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Early Season
Osasuna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levante and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 12W 10D 19L in their last 41 games (1.12 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 13W 10D 18L in their last 41 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levante at home or Osasuna away?
Levante's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levante at home: 1.45 PPG; Osasuna away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 24 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levante have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Osasuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Levante
2
Draws
2
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Osasuna?
From 5 meetings on record, Levante have won 1, Osasuna have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Levante and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2026, when Osasuna 0-0 Levante.
Who has won more matches between Levante and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levante 55%, Osasuna 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Levante) and 40% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Osasuna in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levante play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Levante's recent matches and 40% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levante vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Levante's recent games and 40% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levante and Osasuna tend to score early?
Levante have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.