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Shock result as Atletico Madrid defy the odds to beat Osasuna 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atletico Madrid beat Osasuna 1-2 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 36, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.54 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.27 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.03 / defence 1.02 against Atletico Madrid attack 1.07 / defence 0.98, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Osasuna 44% | Draw 25% | Atletico Madrid 31%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Atletico Madrid win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 47%, Atletico Madrid 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Osasuna's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Atletico Madrid's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.29. Form held, and they took the win. Osasuna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights