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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

La Liga · Regular Season - 36

Kick-off

Tue 12 May 2026

20:30

Venue

Estadio El Sadar

Competition

La Liga

Spain

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Osasuna Win

44%

Osasuna

2.29

25%

Draw

4.00

31%

Atletico Madrid

3.19

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.8%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

9.3%

Home win

2 – 1

9.1%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.54

Osasuna xG

Total xG

2.80

1.27

Atletico Madrid xG

44%
25%
31%
OsasunaDrawAtletico Madrid

2.29

44%

Home win

4.00

25%

Draw

3.19

31%

Away win

Goals Markets

77%

Over 1.5

1.30

23%

Under 1.5

4.35

53%

Over 2.5

1.89

47%

Under 2.5

2.13

31%

Over 3.5

3.23

69%

Under 3.5

1.45

15%

Over 4.5

6.67

85%

Under 4.5

1.18

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

56%

BTTS Yes

1.77

44%

BTTS No

2.29

Clean Sheet

28%

Osasuna

3.55

21%

Atletico Madrid

4.66

Win to Nil

12%

Osasuna

8.12

7%

Atletico Madrid

14.87

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.1 7.7 4.8 2.0 0.6 0.2
1 9.3 11.8 7.5 3.1 1.0 0.3
2 7.2 9.1 5.7 2.4 0.8 0.2
3 3.7 4.7 2.9 1.2 0.4 0.1
4 1.4 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.2
5 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.539
λ Away (xG) 1.266
Total xG 2.805
League avg home goals 1.519
League avg away goals 1.165
Osasuna attack strength 1.030
Osasuna defence strength 1.018
Atletico Madrid attack strength 1.068
Atletico Madrid defence strength 0.984
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 73 / 73