Osasuna vs Alaves – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Osasuna and Alaves share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 16, as Osasuna and Alaves drew 2-2 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.82 xG and Alaves 1.04 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Alaves outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.04 / defence 1.04 against Alaves attack 0.86 / defence 1.20, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Osasuna 56% | Draw 23% | Alaves 22%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 45%, Alaves 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Osasuna's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Alaves's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.28 PPG, Alaves 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights