Osasuna 2-2 Alaves – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model favours Osasuna (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Osasuna face Alaves.

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Analysis & Preview

A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Alaves travel to Estadio El Sadar to take on Osasuna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 December 2024, 17:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all La Liga games this season, Osasuna have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Estadio El Sadar, Osasuna have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Alaves — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Alaves away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Osasuna carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Osasuna register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Alaves in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The fixture history tells a clear story: Osasuna have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 4 past contests while Alaves have managed just 0 wins.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2024, ended 1–0 with Osasuna winning.

The historical record gives Osasuna a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Data

Osasuna trading profile (53 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).

Alaves trading profile (53 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 53% versus Alaves 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 45% | Alaves 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.82 xG and Alaves 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.043 / defence 1.039 | Alaves attack 0.860 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.168. Alaves bring a strong defensive rating of 1.202 — this is suppressing Osasuna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Osasuna games / 53 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Osasuna 56% | Draw 23% | Alaves 22%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Alaves 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Osasuna (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Osasuna are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 80% | Alaves 60% BTTS from recent games.

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