Osasuna vs Alaves – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Osasuna's attack rating (1.04) and Alaves's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Alaves's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
56%
1.80
23%
4.37
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.87
1.04
Alaves xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
16%
6.19
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
3%
28.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.8 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.04 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Alaves?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.