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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Mallorca and Villarreal share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mallorca and Villarreal finished level at 1-1 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 35, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.66 xG and Villarreal 1.15 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 1.10 / defence 0.96 against Villarreal attack 1.02 / defence 0.98, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mallorca 49% | Draw 24% | Villarreal 26%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 51%, Villarreal 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mallorca's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Villarreal's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights