Mallorca 1-1 Valencia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Mallorca face Valencia.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadi Mallorca Son Moix plays host to Mallorca versus Valencia in La Liga (matchday 33). Kick-off: Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
Mallorca's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Mallorca have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Mallorca are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Valencia (all games): 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Valencia's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 9 H2H matches in our data, Mallorca edge it 3 wins to 2, with 4 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Dec 2025, ended Mallorca 1–1 Valencia — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 69 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Valencia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 69 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 56% versus Valencia 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 52% | Valencia 44%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Mallorca surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Valencia have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 37% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.68 xG and Valencia 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 1.135 / defence 0.994 | Valencia attack 0.871 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.124. Data: built from Mallorca's last 69 games and Valencia's last 69.
Result probabilities: Mallorca 54% | Draw 24% | Valencia 22%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 1.86 | Draw 4.12 | Valencia 4.57. Mallorca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mallorca as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mallorca if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.9 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mallorca 80% (last 10 home games) | Valencia 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, matchday 33 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 54% | Draw 24% | Valencia 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Mallorca 1.68 / Valencia 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 1.135 / def 0.994 | Valencia attack 0.871 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Valencia xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mallorca vs Valencia FAQs
What time does Mallorca vs Valencia kick off?
Mallorca vs Valencia kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Valencia?
Mallorca 1 - 1 Valencia.
Where is Mallorca vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Valencia part of?
Mallorca vs Valencia is a La Liga fixture (matchday 33) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 54% chance of winning, Valencia a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Mallorca and Valencia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mallorca vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mallorca's attack at 1.14x the league average against Valencia's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Valencia's attack (0.87x) against Mallorca's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from Mallorca's last 69 games and Valencia's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
54%
1.86
24%
4.12
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.65
0.97
Valencia xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
4%
24.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.5 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mallorca vs Valencia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.97 for Valencia, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Valencia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mallorca come into this having played 69 games, going 22W 16D 31L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Valencia sit at 1.17 PPG from 69 outings (20W 21D 28L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Mallorca against 1.17 for Valencia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Mallorca's home form reads 15W 10D 10L across their last 35 home games, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Valencia have taken 0.77 points per game from their last 35 away games (5W 12D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mallorca are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.13 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Current Season
Valencia
Current Season
Mallorca (Home) vs Valencia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mallorca
Current Season
Valencia
Current Season
❓ Mallorca vs Valencia Form FAQs
What form are Mallorca and Valencia in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 22W 16D 31L in their last 69 games (1.19 PPG), while Valencia have gone 20W 21D 28L in their last 69 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Valencia away?
Mallorca's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.57 PPG; Valencia away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 21 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mallorca have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Valencia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mallorca
5
Draws
2
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Mallorca vs Valencia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Valencia?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Mallorca have won 3, Valencia have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Valencia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 April 2026: Mallorca 1-1 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Valencia?
Mallorca have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 66%, Valencia 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Mallorca) and 46% (Valencia).
On the defensive side: Valencia in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mallorca vs Valencia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mallorca and Valencia matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Mallorca's games and 57% of Valencia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Mallorca and Valencia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Mallorca's recent games and 46% of Valencia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Valencia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Mallorca's recent matches and 77% of Valencia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mallorca and Valencia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 33, as Mallorca and Valencia drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.68 xG and Valencia 0.97 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 1.14 / defence 0.99 against Valencia attack 0.87 / defence 0.95, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 54% | Draw 24% | Valencia 22%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 52%, Valencia 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (69 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Valencia's trading profile (69 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.19 PPG, Valencia 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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