Mallorca 1-0 Sevilla – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Mallorca take on Sevilla.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mallorca and Sevilla meet at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix in La Liga, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 December 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mallorca's overall La Liga record this term: 0W 6D 4L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mallorca at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix this season: 3W 6D 1L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Mallorca are significantly better at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix than their overall form suggests.
Sevilla (all games): 1W 7D 2L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sevilla, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sevilla away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Mallorca 0W, Sevilla 2W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.2 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2023, ended 0–2 with Sevilla winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 16% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Sevilla goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 40% versus Sevilla 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 31% | Sevilla 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.04 xG and Sevilla 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.676 / defence 0.810 | Sevilla attack 0.991 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.135. Mallorca's attack strength of 0.676 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 53 Mallorca games / 52 Sevilla games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 35% | Draw 36% | Sevilla 29%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.86 | Draw 2.78 | Sevilla 3.45. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mallorca 30% | Sevilla 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Sevilla | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Dec 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 35% | Draw 36% | Sevilla 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 41% | xG Mallorca 1.04 / Sevilla 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.676 / def 0.810 | Sevilla attack 0.991 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Sevilla xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Sevilla kick off?
Mallorca vs Sevilla kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 9 December 2023 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Sevilla?
Mallorca 1 - 0 Sevilla.
Where is Mallorca vs Sevilla being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Sevilla part of?
Mallorca vs Sevilla is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Sevilla?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 35% chance of winning, Sevilla a 29% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Sevilla?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Mallorca and Sevilla will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Sevilla have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Sevilla?
Record (4 meetings): Mallorca 0W | Draws 2 | Sevilla 2W.
What form are Mallorca and Sevilla in?
Mallorca (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Sevilla (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Mallorca's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Sevilla's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. Flip it around — Sevilla's attack (0.99x) against Mallorca's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 53/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.82
36%
2.77
29%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Mallorca xG
Total xG
1.95
0.91
Sevilla xG
2.82
35%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
3.51
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
10%
9.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 12.9 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.5 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Sevilla?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Sevilla expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.91 for Sevilla, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Sevilla?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mallorca come into this having played 52 games, going 15W 15D 22L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-D. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sevilla sit at 1.19 PPG from 52 outings (15W 17D 20L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Sevilla is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Mallorca against 1.19 for Sevilla. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Mallorca's home form reads 10W 11D 4L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Mallorca are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sevilla have taken 1.04 points per game from 25 outings (6W 8D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mallorca are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Sevilla are on 1.29 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sevilla in 65%.
Last 52 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Sevilla
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Sevilla in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 15W 15D 22L in their last 52 games (1.15 PPG), while Sevilla have gone 15W 17D 20L in their last 52 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Sevilla away?
Mallorca's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.64 PPG; Sevilla away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Mallorca or Sevilla been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sevilla in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Mallorca have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mallorca won 4-1 on 2 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mallorca have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sevilla — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mallorca
4
Draws
3
Sevilla
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Sevilla?
From 10 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 3, Sevilla have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Sevilla last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Mallorca 4-1 Sevilla.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 36%, Sevilla 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 16% for Mallorca and 48% for Sevilla.
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Mallorca have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Sevilla away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Sevilla?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Mallorca's recent matches and 64% of Sevilla's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Sevilla usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 16% of Mallorca's recent games and 48% of Sevilla's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Sevilla tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Sevilla in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mallorca edge out Sevilla 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Sevilla 1-0 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 16, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.04 xG and Sevilla 0.91 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sevilla landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.68 / defence 0.81 against Sevilla attack 0.99 / defence 1.06, drawn from 53/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 35% | Draw 36% | Sevilla 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Mallorca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 31%, Sevilla 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sevilla's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.15 PPG, Sevilla 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock. Sevilla (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.