Mallorca 0-1 Real Sociedad – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Mallorca at 49%, yet in-form Real Sociedad provide a compelling counter-argument — this Mallorca vs Real Sociedad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Estadi Mallorca Son Moix plays host to Mallorca versus Real Sociedad in La Liga (matchday 26). Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Mallorca have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Mallorca's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Mallorca are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Real Sociedad's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

On the road, Real Sociedad have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

On a straight form reading, Real Sociedad are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Mallorca's last 10 home games and Real Sociedad's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Mallorca's games and 90% of Real Sociedad's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Head-to-Head

Across the 9 H2H matches in our data, Real Sociedad have the stronger record — 6 wins to Mallorca's 2, with 1 draw.

The 9 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.6 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2025, ended Mallorca 0–1 Real Sociedad — a Real Sociedad win.

Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 6 wins from 9 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

Trading

Mallorca half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Real Sociedad half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 56% versus Real Sociedad 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 49% | Real Sociedad 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.86 xG and Real Sociedad 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 1.149 / defence 1.170 | Real Sociedad attack 1.015 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.128. Data: built from Mallorca's last 63 games and Real Sociedad's last 63.

Result probabilities: Mallorca 49% | Draw 25% | Real Sociedad 27%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.06 | Draw 4.03 | Real Sociedad 3.77. Mallorca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.86 / 1.34) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Mallorca as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Real Sociedad (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mallorca if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Mallorca's last 10 home games and Real Sociedad's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.6 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mallorca 80% (last 10 home games) | Real Sociedad 90% (last 10 away games).

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