🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Real Sociedad defy the odds to beat Mallorca 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Real Sociedad beat Mallorca 0-1 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 26, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.86 xG and Real Sociedad 1.34 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mallorca fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 1.15 / defence 1.17 against Real Sociedad attack 1.01 / defence 1.06, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mallorca 49% | Draw 25% | Real Sociedad 27%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Real Sociedad win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 49%, Real Sociedad 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mallorca's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Real Sociedad's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.14 PPG, Real Sociedad 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Real Sociedad win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights