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Dominant Mallorca run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Rayo Vallecano.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mallorca beat Rayo Vallecano 3-0 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 31, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.55 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.91 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Mallorca beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rayo Vallecano landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 1.05 / defence 1.06 against Rayo Vallecano attack 0.76 / defence 0.94, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mallorca 52% | Draw 26% | Rayo Vallecano 22%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 52%, Rayo Vallecano 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mallorca's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.16 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights