🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Mallorca's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 32, as Mallorca and Leganes drew 0-0 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.56 xG and Leganes 0.99 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mallorca fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Leganes landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.94 / defence 1.00 against Leganes attack 0.79 / defence 1.24, drawn from 69/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mallorca 51% | Draw 25% | Leganes 24%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 39%, Leganes 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mallorca's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Leganes's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Mallorca arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Leganes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights