🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Mallorca at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mallorca vs Leganes encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 32 as Mallorca welcome Leganes to Estadi Mallorca Son Moix. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 April 2025 at 17:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all La Liga games this season, Mallorca have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Mallorca have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Leganes — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

On the road, Leganes have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Mallorca carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Mallorca register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Leganes in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Mallorca, 0 for Leganes and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 1–0 with Mallorca winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Mallorca in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Leganes in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 52% versus Leganes 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 39% | Leganes 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.56 xG and Leganes 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.943 / defence 0.996 | Leganes attack 0.790 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.260. Leganes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.237 — this is suppressing Mallorca's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 69 Mallorca games / 31 Leganes games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Mallorca 51% | Draw 25% | Leganes 24%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Leganes 4.17. Mallorca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Mallorca are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mallorca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Mallorca 80% | Leganes 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights